UN warns of an impending ‘existential crisis’ that destroys crops and leaves billions facing starvation – as report reveals three-quarters of Earth’s land has become permanently drier in last three decades
Humanity is facing an ‘existential crisis’ that threatens billions around the globe, the UN has warned.
A report from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) shows that more than three-quarters of all land on Earth has become permanently drier over the last 30 years.
Since 1990, arid regions have expanded by an area a third larger than India and now cover 40 per cent of the Earth’s land excluding Antarctica.
Experts warn that this has ‘dire implications for agriculture’ as an increasingly hot climate turns the world’s former ‘breadbaskets’ – lush grain-growing regions – into drylands.
By 2040, the UN predicts that the spread of arid areas will cost the world 20 million tonnes of maize, 21 million tonnes of wheat, and 19 million tonnes of rice.
The researchers conclude with certainty that human-caused climate change is the principal reason for this deadly crisis.
If nothing is done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the number of people living in drylands will more than double from 2.3 billion to 5 billion in 2100.
UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw says: ‘For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe.’
The UN has warned that humanity is facing an ‘existential crisis’ as the Earth’s arid areas have rapidly expanded over the last 30 years. Pictured an Australian farmer inspects his dead wheat crop following a drought in New South Wales
A new report shows that more than 75 per cent of the Earth’s land has become permanently drier over the last three decades (marked in various shadings on this map)
Published in a report by the UN’s leading authority of desertification, this new data reveals the worrying scope of the world’s aridity crisis.
Even as the world has witnessed shocking floods and storms, these findings show that the vast majority of the world has become significantly drier.
However, the problem is even more severe than the already significant increase in deadly droughts would suggest.
Mr Thiaw says: ‘Unlike droughts – temporary periods of low rainfall – aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation.
‘Droughts end. When an area’s climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost. The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were and this change is redefining life on Earth.’
This means that the 4.3 million square kilometres (1.66 million square miles) of new drylands which formed in the last 30 years will never return to their original state.
Europe was one of the hardest hit regions with 95.9 per cent of all land becoming dryer since 1990.
Parts of the western United States, Brazil, eastern Asia, and central Africa also faced significant impacts from a drying climate.
The UN warns that this will have ‘dire’ consequences for agriculture as the world’s drylands have expanded by 4.3 million square kilometres (1.66 million square miles). Pictured: A struggling farm in Kenya
Already more than 2.3 billion people live in arid regions. If nothing is done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (right) this number could more than double to five billion
Aridity measurements taken from around the globe found that 7.6 per cent of land was pushed across an aridity threshold in recent years, mostly moving from humid landscapes to drylands.
South Sudan and Tanzania were the nations with the biggest proportion of land shifting from non-dryland to dryland while China had the largest total area of changing land.
Additionally, the data showed that many already dry regions faced intensifying water shortages with some areas being reclassified as ‘hyperarid’ particularly in southern Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and southern Asia.
In total, 9.1 per cent of the Earth’s land is now classified as hyperarid, meaning that they are so dry that little to nothing can grow.
The biggest impact of this change will be on global agriculture which will be particularly hard hit by reduced water availability.
The UN predicts that 40 per cent of all arable land is affected by aridity, making it the leading driver of land degradation.
This comes even as research estimates that the global population will continue to grow until the mid-2080s reaching a peak of over 10 billion.
Barron Orr, UNCCD chief scientist, says: ‘Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline.’
Scientists from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) say that 2024 is now virtually certain to be the hottest year on record and the first year to exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average
The researchers note that even the traditional agricultural breadbaskets of Mediterranean and Southern Europe face ‘a stark future’ as the dry conditions expand.
This will be particularly damaging for highly water-intensive food sources like meat, milk, eggs, and nuts as well as crops like lentils which require consistent rainfall.
According to the UN, this will inevitably lead to stark increases in forced migration.
As land becomes uninhabitable, families and communities will have no choice but to leave their homes or face death by starvation.
With millions already on the move, this is likely to exacerbate the ongoing migrant crisis and lead to social and political challenges around the globe.
However, the reason for this rapid change in the Earth’s climate is clear.
The UNCCD Science-Policy Interface points to human-caused climate change as the primary driver of this shift.
As greenhouse gasses have built up in the atmosphere this has raised the planet’s average temperature to unnaturally high levels.
As global temperatures increase, this puts increasing strain on the global agriculture system. This map shows the areas at the highest risk of disruption by drought in red
As areas like Valencia, Spain (pictured) are hit by intense flooding, the UN warns that changing climate patterns mean that cyclical patterns of drought and flash flooding are likely to become more common
In turn, this leads to increased evaporation and reduced plant life which create the conditions which increase aridity.
The reason this comes alongside a rise in water-related disasters such as floods and storms is due to regional variations in the impacts of climate change.
Warmer air holds more water and energy so when rain does fall it is more likely to do so in violent storms, hurricanes and flash floods.
This means that a few regions end up receiving more rainfall than they otherwise would during some parts of the year.
The UN found that a quarter of the world has actually become wetter over the last 30 years.
However, hot, dry soils have less vegetation and can’t absorb as much water so even areas that are becoming drier on average can still be hit by flash flooding.
This leads to recurrent cycles of floods and droughts which make agriculture all but impossible in some regions.
If nothing is done, the UN report predicts that the global situation is only likely to get worse in the coming decades.
More than 40 per cent of the world’s arable land has been affected by the expansion of arid zones. The UN predicts that this expansion will cost the world 20 million tonnes of maize, 21 million tonnes of wheat, and 19 million tonnes of rice. Pictured: Former farmland in Somalia
An increasingly dry climate will also make wildfires, like those which caused devastation in California this year (pictured), significantly more frequent
Even if greenhouse gasses continue to rise modestly, more than two-thirds of all land on the planet is projected to store less water by the end of the century.
In a worst-case scenario, five billion people will live in arid regions while eight per cent of global land will become a ‘very high risk’ for becoming desert.
An increasingly dry climate will also create additional risks to human life in the form of wildfires and dust storms.
The UN predicts that the levels of airborne dust over the southwestern United States will increase by 57 per cent by 2100.
That will lead to 220 per cent more premature deaths and a 160 per cent increase in hospitalisations in Southern states if nothing is done to curb climate change.
However, scientists maintain that there is still a possibility that humanity can adapt to the demands of the changing climate.
Mr Orr says: ‘Yet, by embracing innovative solutions and fostering global solidarity, humanity can rise to meet this challenge.
‘The question is not whether we have the tools to respond – it is whether we have the will to act.’
A previous study indicates that a staggering 30 million people could perish by the end of the century thanks to increased temperatures (top) and air pollution (bottom)
As wildfires and dust storms become more common, the UN predicts a 220 per cent increase in premature deaths due to airborne dust in the Southwestern United States. Pictured thick fog forms over Lower Manhattan due to Canadian wildfires in June, 2023
The UN is calling for improved governments to strengthen their drought monitoring systems and improve land use practices to make the most of a dwindling water supply.
This could include shifting towards drought-resistant crops or improving wastewater recycling in vulnerable areas.
Sergio Vicente-Serrano, co-author of the report and aridity expert at Spain’s Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, says: ‘This report underscores the critical need to address aridity as a defining global challenge of our time.
‘Tackling aridity demands a collaborative vision that integrates innovation, adaptive solutions, and a commitment to securing a sustainable future for all.’
