Elon Musk, with a fortune of $400billion, is already the world’s richest man – although he chooses to live in a tiny $50,000 prefab home.
But speculation has arisen that this combative tech entrepreneur, an increasingly close associate of president-elect Donald Trump and supporter of Reform UK could become a trillionaire during the next four years.
This ascent in fortune would be fuelled by growth at his main venture Tesla, the world’s number one maker of electric cars, and by expansion at his other key enterprise, Space X, the $350billion designer and manufacturer of advanced rockets and space craft. The colonisation of the planet Mars is among its aims.
Do the opportunities presented by Musk’s mix of talent and friends in high places mean that this is the time to take a bet on this ‘free speech absolutist’?
After all, Trump’s presidential acceptance speech even included a mention of a Space X marvel – the ‘Mechazilla’ robotic arms fitted to the launchpad with which it catches the Starship rocket booster on its return to earth.
Cathie Wood, US fund manager at Ark Invest, says that Musk is equipped with a unique understanding of the ‘current technology landscape’, where artificial intelligence (AI), energy storage and robotics converge. These insights are one of the reasons why Tesla’s board is fighting to give him a $56billion wage packet, although a court ruled against the award.
Close: Elon Musk and Donald Trump and a Tesla Model 3
Another justification for this pay rise is the super-sized benefit that could, potentially, flow from Musk’s role as co-head of the new US Department of Government Efficiency (Doge).
If this body slashes red tape, this should boost Tesla, Space X and Musk’s other businesses which include xAI, the $50bn start-up firm behind Grok, a chatbot ‘with humour’, Neuralink which makes brain implants and social media site X, formerly known as Twitter, which has slumped in value under his ownership.
Yet despite the rewards that could result from the Trump alliance, investors should be mindful of the views of those who are not in the Musk fan club.
They do not doubt his extraordinary intellect and capacity for apparently endless innovation but argue that the new political position will test even Musk’s constitution, although he happily works 100-120-hours a week.
David Coombs, head of multi asset investments at Rathbones is among the sceptics, saying that he would never put clients’ Isa and pension cash into Tesla, arguing that it is ‘a cult-like investment’.
Coombs also says that the bromance with Trump could end.
Ben Barringer, technology analyst at wealth manager Quilter Cheviot, also says that it is worth waiting to see how the relationship between the president and the mercurial Musk unfolds. ‘The chief executives of the biggest tech groups have been meeting with Trump and Musk in an attempt to establish what the future looks like for the regulation of their industry,’ Barringer says.
‘These discussions are going on behind closed doors, but it is an area in which there could be considerable progress next year.’
The prospects look interesting, possibly thrilling – but also uncertain. If that fills you with enthusiasm rather than trepidation these are your options.
TESLA
In the early part of the year, Tesla was viewed as the laggard member of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech stocks: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia make up the rest of the gang. But Tesla has raced ahead over the past month rising by 108 per cent to $476. The price is now 1,777 per cent up over five years – and 3,557 per cent higher than a decade ago.
In the summer the focus was on the company’s spiralling costs, and the challenge posed to its various models of car by the more affordable Chinese BYD automobiles. Now the conviction is mounting that the Trump victory will enable Tesla to pursue its autonomous vehicle ambitions in a more unfettered way.
Under the current rules in the US, there are blocks on producing large numbers of cars without pedals or steering wheels. A Doge deregulation drive could see these obstacles – which
include detailed reporting of crashes – loosened. The outcome could be $1 trillion of extra sales for Tesla, or so the brokers Wedbush estimate.
Meanwhile, it is felt that Trump would take steps to shield Musk if Beijing were to retaliate against US tariffs by imposing its own tariffs on Tesla cars.
Wedbush has set a $515 target for the shares, adding that ‘in a favourable scenario’ the price could leap to about $650 by the end of 2025. Other analysts are more sceptical about the self-driving car revolution, however, rating the shares a ‘hold’.
SPACE X
It is not possible to directly buy shares in Space X since it is an unlisted company. Musk owns about 54 per cent of the shares, with the rest held by institutions and venture capitalists.
You can, however, get exposure to the business through three investment trusts from the management group Baillie Gifford: Scottish Mortgage, Edinburgh Worldwide and Schiehallion.
Lawrence Burns, the group’s deputy manager, hails Space X as possibly ‘the most geopolitically important asset in the world’, thanks to its near-monopoly over private sector access to space.
Space X, which was founded by Musk in 2002, carries payloads for commercial partners and the US government. Its collaboration with Nasa includes taking two astronauts to the International Space Station and back.
Musk would like to spend his retirement on Mars. But Space X’s chief operating officer Gwynne Shotwell has no such dreams.
She is more interested in attracting more terrestrial customers to Starlink, Space X’s internet network. The belief that this satellite network could become the most popular way to access the internet is adding to the hope of many investors that Space X could go public. The company was valued at $210billion in June. The subsequent leap to $350billion makes it seem an irresistible proposition.
At present, however, tech companies are tending to see more advantage in remaining private. Maybe deregulation could change this stance.
Scottish Mortgage, a constituent of the FTSE 100, backs tech companies of all types, including Amazon, Nvidia and Tesla. Space X may be one of its unlisted stakes, but such have been the concerns over this element of the portfolio that the trust’s share price stands at a 13 per cent discount to its net asset value (NAV).
Scottish Mortgage is my personal bet on Tesla and Space X, but it is a high-risk vehicle, despite its solid-sounding name.
Schiehallion, named for one of the Munro mountains, is another trust only suited for those with a taste for a gamble.
However, excitement over its Space X link has narrowed its discount to 7 per cent, illustrating the willingness of investors worldwide to follow Musk to Mars – or wherever else he wishes to go.
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